I found this fake Panerai and was taken aback. It had the train bridges of a real Panerai. ETA doesn't make this movement for anyone else. So there's two ways to get them... steal them from ETA or make your own. The workmanship on the watch is pretty good. It has actual bevelage on the bridges that is pedestrian but good. The fake geneva stripes, that I believe the russians invented back in the 50's, is executed well. Running wise it's close to chronometer standards tested out to positions. The watch was pressure tested and it came out to 15 ATM's. So here is this watch that costs less than the movement inside it and a cup of coffee, and you get a real watch, a real good watch. I don't get how they do it. The "faking" aside, this is a $1000 watch easy with any name on it. I knew four or five years ago that Asia was going to change everything. I've been predicting and preaching big change for a couple years (Sea-Gull Industries!). But oh boy, I didn't realize they were going to make the Swiss just a ...

Frank"407"Kusumoto

Frank,

I spent 5 weeks in China this summer. During that time, I saw literally thousands of fake watches, most of which were terrible quality, with no attempt to look like the real thing. These also typically sold for a buck or two. They included such things as "Rolexes" marked Oyster Perpetual Datejust, when they weren't in an Oyster Case, had a quartz movement and didn't have a date. But what do you expect for a buck?

On the other hand, on two occasions I was offered so-called "grade A" fakes, one a Cartier Tank Americaine, the other an Omega "James Bond" Seamaster, that I had to do a double or triple take on. Price was more like $100, but the finish on the Stainless cases, the quality of the dials, and especially the movement quality were surprising. If they had been offered in less suspicious circumstances, and I had not been on my guard, (and not known what the real price was supposed to be), I could easily see being fooled.

The scariest thing that I saw though was a pie-pan dial Omega Constellation that looked like a NOS example from 1960. Absolutely would have fooled me except for the display back. The movement looked an awful lot like the 561 caliber, but I didn't have one to compare. It was marked 24 jewels, but I could only count 21. No idea what the base movement might have been , or if they were making a copy from scratch. The markings were good, the pink gilding was the right color, size and weight were right. And he was asking a price close enough to what would be appropriate for the real thing (2500 Yuan or about $300)that it caught me off guard. I found it more disturbing that they would fake a classic design, one that is common enough as to not automatically set off alarms, but still valuable enough to make faking worthwhile.

These weren't being hawked by street vendors, but rather were being sold by dealers in brick and mortar stores (kiosks actually), one in the lobby of a major hotel. They also had Pateks, Franck Muller's, Audemar's, and of course the obligatory Rolexes. I didn't see the Panerai, but wouldn't have been surprised. It is scary, and I hate to see what could be coming in the future.

Of course, these same stores, as well as other "legitimate" shops were openly selling knock-off Polo, North Face, Abercrombie, Nike, Adidas, Hollister, Callaway golf Clubs(!), anything you can imagine with Disney logos, and DVD's for current theater release movies. And the DVD's were 6 Yuan (75 cents). So of course I'm scared about the implications for the watch world, but even more so for the rest of proprietary manufacturing. It's a big, scary world out there.

Regards,

Cary

If you think that their watches are good, take a look at their "Certificates of Autenticity," seals and holograms. Anyone who is relying upon a hologram as a guarantee of authenticity ought to reconsider.

I've made about a half-dozen trips to Asia in the past 5 yrs and always stopped on the mainland (my daughter was living there). I've seen their fakery go from ridiculous to pretty good.

Cary,

Thanks for the first hand report. I've seen the "Bond" Seamaster, almost certainly the one you saw, and yes another scary one. Really good quality. I've also examined a very good Sea Dweller fake with a 2894 movement, sapphire crystal, how do they do it? A high-quality watch for $300. I think now we have a good idea of what it really costs the watch companies to make these watches, at least in parts and material costs.

It poses a philosophical question for me. If you have two Seamaster's, and no one can tell which was made by whom, or rather which one is "real", then what is the difference?

Surprising to hear that a pie-pan was faked. How did you know it was a fake? If that's happening then I'd expect old Rolex's and Breitlings to start being made.

Frank"407"Kusumoto

Frank,

The tip-off on the Constellation was the display back. I flipped it over looking for the observatory, and there was a modern looking crystal back. It was also just a bit too good looking for a forty year old watch. But, as I said, in different circumstances (like on a legitimate traders table), I might have been fooled. I've also seen a fake Bubbleback Rolex, but it was not so well done.

I don't really believe that these prices can be related to the costs that a legitimate watch manufacturer incurs. Over and over while I was there (and I visited some manufacturing facilities as well as technical schools) I was struck by the apparent lack of any understanding of cost accounting. A CPA would have heart failure over the way books are kept. Since they're now almost 60 years into Communist nationalization, I don't think anyone has a realistic concept of overhead costs, marginal productivity measures or any of the other real but "hidden" costs of manufacturing. Electricity is still heavily subsidized, as is phone service, water, health care (although it's no longer free), construction costs for government approved building, not to mention that there is still a low average rate of pay (about $400 per month for most skilled workers). Everyone I had a chance to talk to about manufacturing seemed to consider cash flow as being much more important than actual profit. Who knows how much these things actually cost to produce? I do believe that, regardless of the official line, these knock-offs, whether they're watches or golf clubs, are being made with at least the implicit support of their government, and more likely the outright expicit underwriting. It keeps people busy and provides opportunity, and those two things help avoid unrest.

With that said, it does seem to show that they will soon be able to give the Swiss a run for their money, especially on the mid range (high hundreds to low thousands) stuff. I also expect to see the lower end stuff shift to other Asian countries (Vietnam, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia spring to mind).

I might add that it's more amazing to me that they can produce a functional (if not convincing) copy of a Submariner with an automatic movement that sold for $5, or a quartz movement "Daytona" that went for $2. I can't buy a crystal for that, or even a battery for the quartz movement.

For what it's worth,

Cary

I too was amazed when I saw the fake 007 Omega and would have guessed it was too good to be wrong. Luckily. another jeweler pointed out that the dial was supposed to be blue and not black. It would take a very special five point wrench to open it up too which works in the fakers favor too.

A pal of mine just aquired an Omega co-axial escapement watch without opening it first. He's going to bring it by so we can check it out. It is a bit of a nail-biter but I'm hoping for the best.
-Cort

Cort,

Saw those too, same auto movement as the Rolexes, but with "Omega" screened all over the rotor. Display back, not too great a dial, but from a distance, and for $5, they were pretty impressive.

The fake Omega band and buckle would probably be worth the price.

Cary

Cary and Cort and even Peter,

Oh, the price is worth the band and buckle. It's a nicely made band probably made out of standard 316L stainless steel. I think the price if you want to buy it from Omega is $600 give or take a few hundred.

I really don't want to get into a debate about intellectual property rights and the money "THEY" have to spend for promotion and advertising and ethics and evil and damnation and lawyers and copyrights, and etc. I notice the watches are there. What are these watch like tech wise? What is changing? There's some real implications like:

"Can a fake Omega Bond be used as a parts watch for the real thing?"

If and/or when the answer is "Yes" there's a whole bunch more questions...!

I guess I shouldn't be suprprised at all that these parts are being made (probably?) and assembled in Asia, specifically around HK. The dirty little secret of the Swiss watch industry is how they've secretly moved production of certain parts to places where labor is cheap. Some claim ETA watches are more like "Assembled in Switzerland", not "Made". But that's another discussion.

Now the kicker I think is, they have all the tech, now they are going to make their own "HIGH QUALITY" movements. They will design and market their own movments to compete with ETA. They're going to have them chronometer certified or make their own certification. The Chinese already make their own tourbillion and they run. I hope they don't start copying Studebakers!!!

I wonder, with the technical advances, is there anything in there for the hobby guy or small-time watchmaker to use that makes life easier? Is it going to do anything to the Pocketwatch or vintage wristwatch collecting market? Has it already been done and it's someone's closely held little secret that they're making bundles off of? The North Koreans already make a $100 dollar bill that is "BETTER" than the one we make! The engraving is crisper!

Frank"407"Kusumoto

Frank,

Of course you're right. I would never try to defend the outrageous prices of the top line Swiss makers except to say that it is their right to charge whatever they want, and ours to decide if we want to pay it.

I've often heard it said that the best counterfeiter is the one that is never caught, so we will never know who he is. With the millions of Rolexes (or even the thousands of Panerai's), who knows how many nearly perfect fakes make it into the mainstream, and are kept, worn and adored by owners who think they have a genuine piece. And, as Frank hiinted, what difference does it make?

I think the highest end makers will always have their market niche, and the ridiculous prices will leave room for both defenses against fraud, and an incentive to try to fake them. It's the middle range where I see the fakes coming in and displacing the Swiss makers. As they gain legitimacy in the market, via increased quality, they could well become a viable market force.

And another point Frank raised, if the ETA (or whoever) movements begin life in Asia, who's to say that some of those parts aren't being "re-directed" from the factory. I was shown Nike shoes that were allegedly not fake, but rather were "extras", produced in a Nike contracted Chinese factory, with Nike materials, by Nike workers, on Nike machinery, to Nike designs, but made after hours, by enterprising (and boy are they enterprising) workers who were willing to put in some extra hours and spirit away the products. Is that a Nike shoe? Tough philosophical call for me to make. If the same thing is being done at factories for any of the modern ebauche makers, then we may be closer than we know to the situation Frank postulates.

It would then be a small step to making their own.

FOr what it's worth,

Cary

Frank:

I treat Chinese counterfeiting as a fact of life. During my first visit to Shanghai, I was finding counterfeit movies and music in the best shops. My daughter, who knows these things, advised me that all of those shops are government owned or partnered.

In later years, under pressure, the government participation became less obvious.

One of the reasons that I chose to publicly announce my ownership of a Ball-Hamilton Delong was to document that I owned it BEFORE the counterfeit pallets and escape wheels appeared.

Before I bought that watch, I specifically asked Tom McIntyre about the possibility of counterfeits. He replied that from his knowledge of the manufacturing process, it would be highly unlikely that a GOOD set of counterfeits could be made. I am not so certain after what I have seen of Chinese copies. Right now, the Chinese lack the horological knowledge to make such a fake... but I cannot predict that it will always be the case.

Peter, you are darn smart for someone who's got a J.D.
That's real smart documenting the stuff that might get copied.

Before retirement I worked for many years in the computer industry and travelled to Asia (Taiwan, HK, China and Malaysia )on a number of occasions in the 80's and 90's. I have witnessed first hand the transfer of technology and jobs to the Far East at an ever alarming rate. I read a couple of weeks ago that 85% of the global supply of all Computer Laptops are now made in Shanghai China. So it's not the least bit surprising to me the watch industry and associated manufacturing technolgies has found it's way there also.